Racing Club Avellaneda — CA Banfield: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.8% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 40.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.2% / 31.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Racing Club Avellaneda have a slight edge over CA Banfield in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting, although the low confidence level suggests a closely balanced contest rather than a decisive home advantage. The available signals point toward a medium-scoring match, with the hosts marginally better positioned to control the outcome.
A clean sheet is considered likely, which makes a narrow result the most consistent reading of the preview. The main scorelines are 1-0 and 2-0 in favour of Racing Club Avellaneda, while 1-1 remains a plausible alternative if CA Banfield can resist sustained pressure and keep the match level. Overall, the analysis leans toward a home win, but the limited confidence calls for caution and leaves room for a tight, low-margin game.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Match Result
The matchday 5 fixture of the 2026 Torneo Clausura between Racing Club and CA Banfield took place on August 14, 2026, with Banfield winning 1-0.
Decisive Goal by Alexander Machado
The only goal of the match against Racing Club was scored by Banfield forward Alexander Machado in the 24th minute.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.