Racing Club Avellaneda — CA Banfield: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.8% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 40.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 39.9% / 60.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.9% / 60.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Racing Club Avellaneda have a slight edge over CA Banfield in this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture, although the moderate confidence suggests a closely contested match rather than a decisive home advantage. The available signals point towards a cautious game, with limited scoring likely to shape the contest.
A clean sheet appears more likely than both teams finding the net, which places added importance on the opening goal. Racing Club Avellaneda may look to control the match and create enough to take a narrow lead, while CA Banfield’s best route may be to remain compact and keep the game level for as long as possible. The most plausible scorelines are 1:0 or 2:0, with 1:1 also consistent with the expectation of a low-scoring encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Recent result
Banfield defeated Racing Club 1-0 away at Estadio Presidente Perón on August 14, 2026, in the fifth round of Torneo Clausura through a goal by Alexander Machado.
Racing's losing streak
The loss to Banfield marked Racing Club's third consecutive defeat in Torneo Clausura, leaving them with just four points from their opening five matches.
Racing team news
Racing Club were without injured defender Marco Di Césare and suspended forward Adrián 'Maravilla' Martínez following his previous red card.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.