Racing Club Avellaneda — Atletico Tucuman: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.5% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 45.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.0% / 59.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Racing Club Avellaneda have a slight home advantage over Atletico Tucuman in this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture. The assessment carries high confidence, although it points to an edge rather than a decisive gap between the sides. The main expectation is that Racing Club Avellaneda avoid defeat, with the home side offering the more reliable direction in the result market.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with the likely scorelines centred on a narrow home win or a controlled draw. A 1:0 result and a 1:1 draw are among the leading scenarios, while a 2:0 home victory is also considered plausible. Whether both teams score remains finely balanced, so there is no strong indication in either direction on that aspect. Atletico Tucuman remain capable of making the contest close, but the overall evaluation favours Racing Club Avellaneda, particularly through the protection provided by the home advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Racing Club's Winless Run
Racing Club enter matchday 8 of the 2026 Torneo Clausura following a 3-1 defeat to Independiente Rivadavia, extending their winless league streak to six matches.
Atlético Tucumán's Defensive Record
Atlético Tucumán have conceded only two goals through seven Clausura matches, keeping clean sheets in nine of their last ten fixtures across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.