Paris Saint-Germain — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 26.10.2026

Paris Saint-Germain enter this Ligue 1 meeting with Olympique Lyon in strong recent form, having won four of their last five matches and scored 10 goals across that run. They sit second in the table with 14 points from seven games, level on points with the league leaders. Their home record has been less convincing, with one win and one defeat in two matches, but they have scored four goals on their own ground. Their ability to create clearly more chances than they allow gives them a solid foundation, even if their defensive record at home leaves room for concern.

Olympique Lyon arrive with an equally competitive recent scoring record, also netting 10 goals in their last five matches. They have collected three wins, one draw and one defeat during that period, and their away performances have been mixed, with one win, one draw and one loss in three games. Their tendency to allow more chances than they create on the road could be a significant disadvantage against an attacking Paris Saint-Germain side. The historical meetings also point towards an open contest: both teams scored in all six of their last encounters, each of which produced more than two goals. Although Olympique Lyon won the most recent meeting, Paris Saint-Germain hold the stronger overall head-to-head record. The hosts have a clear edge, with goals at both ends a realistic prospect.