Newell's Old Boys — Deportivo Riestra AFBC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.5% |
| 12 | 67.8% | |
| X2 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 35.3% / 64.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 28.7% / 71.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.1% / 95.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.2% / 98.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Newell's Old Boys enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a clear but narrow advantage over Deportivo Riestra AFBC. The outlook points toward a controlled match in which the hosts are more likely to avoid defeat, although the margin between the teams is not expected to produce an open contest. A home victory is possible, but the draw remains a significant part of the overall picture.
The scoring outlook is notably restrained. Newell's Old Boys may look to establish territorial control without taking excessive risks, while Deportivo Riestra AFBC are likely to keep the game compact and limit the space available in the final third. That combination makes a low-scoring encounter the most plausible scenario, with a clean sheet also a realistic possibility. Overall, the analytical lean is toward Newell's Old Boys or a draw, with the match potentially decided by one moment rather than sustained attacking pressure.
What matters before kick-off
Match Result
The Round 5 match of Torneo Clausura 2026 between Newell's Old Boys and Deportivo Riestra took place on August 15, 2026, at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, with the hosts securing a 2-0 victory.
Newell's Old Boys Goalscorers
Newell's Old Boys secured the victory over Deportivo Riestra thanks to second-half goals from Facundo Guch and Walter Mazzantti.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.