New York City FC — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 18.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.0% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.3% / 33.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.6% / 55.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.2% / 86.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Real Salt Lake 2:0
- 10.09.2026 home New England Revolution 1:2
- 05.09.2026 home Nashville SC 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Toronto FC 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away New England Revolution 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:2
- 06.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 0:0
- 30.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:1
This season: New York City FC at home vs New York Red Bulls away
| Metric | New York City FC · at home | New York Red Bulls · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–5 | 4–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.15 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.54 | 1.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 62% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 69% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 New York Red Bulls 1:1 New York City FC
- 28.09.2025 New York Red Bulls 2:3 New York City FC
- 17.05.2025 New York City FC 2:0 New York Red Bulls
- 23.11.2024 New York City FC 0:2 New York Red Bulls
- 29.09.2024 New York Red Bulls 1:5 New York City FC
- 19.05.2024 New York City FC 2:1 New York Red Bulls
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New York City FC have a slight but meaningful edge ahead of their MLS meeting with New York Red Bulls. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts are marginally better placed, while the overall balance still leaves room for a draw. The high confidence in the home-leaning outlook suggests New York City FC should be able to impose their strengths, but not necessarily control every phase of the game.
The scoring profile indicates an open contest, with both New York City FC and New York Red Bulls likely to find the net. That makes a cautious approach difficult to sustain for either side, particularly if the first goal arrives early. A narrow home victory is a plausible reading of the matchup, although a level result also fits the expected pattern. The key analytical signal is therefore protection against an away win, rather than an expectation of a one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Ending winless streaks ahead of derby
Both clubs ended their respective winless streaks in the previous MLS round: New York City FC secured a 2-0 win over Real Salt Lake, while New York Red Bulls earned a 1-0 victory against Columbus Crew.
New York Red Bulls availability update
According to the official MLS availability report, New York Red Bulls defender Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty is ruled out with a hamstring injury, while Justin Che and Adri Mehmeti are questionable.
Third meeting in 2026
The upcoming Hudson River Derby will be the third competitive meeting between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls in 2026, following a 3-1 NYCFC U.S. Open Cup win in April and a 1-1 MLS draw in May.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.