Nacional da Madeira — FC Famalicao: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.9% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 75.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.1% / 50.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.3% / 28.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.9% / 55.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Nacional da Madeira
15th place · 4 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Alverca 1:3
- 05.09.2026 away Sp Lisbon 0:2
- 30.08.2026 home Estrela 2:3
- 23.08.2026 away Guimaraes 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Estoril 2:0
FC Famalicao
13th place · 4 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Sp Lisbon 1:1
- 05.09.2026 away Estrela 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Gil Vicente 0:0
- 23.08.2026 away Santa Clara 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Maritimo 1:2
This season: Nacional da Madeira at home vs FC Famalicao away
| Metric | Nacional da Madeira · at home | FC Famalicao · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–2 | 0–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.71 | 1.44 |
| xG against per match | 1.36 | 1.17 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| Corners per match | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 FC Famalicao 1:0 Nacional da Madeira
- 01.11.2025 Nacional da Madeira 0:1 FC Famalicao
- 01.03.2025 Nacional da Madeira 2:1 FC Famalicao
- 29.09.2024 FC Famalicao 0:0 Nacional da Madeira
- 16.05.2021 FC Famalicao 3:0 Nacional da Madeira
- 30.01.2021 Nacional da Madeira 2:1 FC Famalicao
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Nacional da Madeira face FC Famalicao in Liga Portugal on 19 September, with the analysis pointing to a slight edge for the visitors. The overall assessment has high confidence, although the expected balance remains competitive rather than one-sided. The X2 signal supports a match in which FC Famalicao are favoured to avoid defeat, while Nacional da Madeira still appear capable of making the contest difficult.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, suggesting a game with a moderate number of goals rather than an open shootout. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, so there is no strong indication that either side will definitely find the net. The most likely scorelines reflect that uncertainty: 1:1 represents a closely fought draw, while 0:1 and 1:2 indicate narrow wins for FC Famalicao. Overall, the visitors have the stronger position in the assessment, but the margin is limited enough for a draw to remain a realistic outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Nacional appointed new head coach
Nacional da Madeira appointed Alexandre Santos as their new head coach ahead of September's Liga Portugal fixtures.
Famalicão drew in previous round
In their previous Liga Portugal match, FC Famalicão recorded a 1-1 home draw against Sporting CP.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.