Gil Vicente Barcelos — Maritimo Madeira: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.9% |
| 12 | 71.9% | |
| X2 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.0% / 10.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.3% / 57.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.2% / 90.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.4% / 96.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Gil Vicente Barcelos
8th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Benfica 1:3
- 06.09.2026 home Academico Viseu 0:1
- 30.08.2026 away Famalicao 0:0
- 24.08.2026 home Casa Pia 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Sp Braga 0:0
Maritimo Madeira
10th place · 7 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.09.2026 away Moreirense 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Benfica 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Arouca 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Academico Viseu 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Famalicao 2:1
This season: Gil Vicente Barcelos at home vs Maritimo Madeira away
| Metric | Gil Vicente Barcelos · at home | Maritimo Madeira · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–1 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.72 | 1.01 |
| xG against per match | 0.46 | 1.41 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.03.2023 Gil Vicente Barcelos 2:0 Maritimo Madeira
- 11.09.2022 Maritimo Madeira 1:2 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 20.03.2022 Gil Vicente Barcelos 1:1 Maritimo Madeira
- 31.10.2021 Maritimo Madeira 1:2 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 05.05.2021 Maritimo Madeira 0:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 17.01.2021 Gil Vicente Barcelos 0:1 Maritimo Madeira
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gil Vicente Barcelos meet Maritimo Madeira in Liga Portugal with the hosts holding a slight edge. The assessment points toward a high-confidence lean in favour of Gil Vicente Barcelos, although the difference between the teams is not expected to be overwhelming. The main signal supports the hosts avoiding defeat, rather than indicating a decisive advantage.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0 among the likely scorelines. That range suggests a contest that could remain close for long periods, with the margin potentially decided by the hosts’ ability to turn their territorial or attacking advantage into clear chances. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, so neither a clean sheet nor goals at both ends should be treated as the central expectation. Overall, Gil Vicente Barcelos have the clearer pre-match position, while Maritimo Madeira remain capable of keeping the game competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Gil Vicente manager remarks ahead of the match
Ahead of the matchday 7 clash with Marítimo, Gil Vicente head coach Luís Pinto called for focus and defensive discipline. He stressed that the Barcelos side are eager to secure their first league victory since matchday 3.
Marítimo manager addresses three-game losing streak
Ahead of the away match against Gil Vicente, Marítimo manager Mitchell van der Gaag addressed his side's form following three consecutive league defeats. He called for balance, stating the team is not as bad as recent results suggest.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.