Liverpool — Nottingham Forest: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.1% |
| 12 | 80.9% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.2% / 26.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.3% / 66.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.5% / 81.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Liverpool
11th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 15.05.2026 away Aston Villa 2:4
- 09.05.2026 home Chelsea 1:1
- 03.05.2026 away Man United 2:3
Nottingham Forest
15th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Leeds 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Bournemouth 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away Man United 2:3
- 10.05.2026 home Newcastle 1:1
- 04.05.2026 away Chelsea 3:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.02.2026 Nottingham Forest 0:1 Liverpool
- 22.11.2025 Liverpool 0:3 Nottingham Forest
- 14.01.2025 Nottingham Forest 1:1 Liverpool
- 14.09.2024 Liverpool 0:1 Nottingham Forest
- 02.03.2024 Nottingham Forest 0:1 Liverpool
- 29.10.2023 Liverpool 3:0 Nottingham Forest
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Liverpool go into this EPL meeting with a clear overall advantage over Nottingham Forest, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be treated as decisive. The available assessment points towards a high-scoring contest, with Liverpool’s stronger position balanced by the expectation that Nottingham Forest can contribute in attack. That combination makes an open match more likely than a tightly controlled encounter.
The main signal favours a Liverpool victory, but the scoring outlook leaves room for a competitive game rather than a one-sided performance. Nottingham Forest’s apparent ability to find the net means Liverpool may need to defend carefully, particularly if the match develops at a quick tempo. A result with goals at both ends fits the broader assessment, while the range of likely scorelines indicates that a narrow home win is more consistent with the data than a comfortable margin.
What matters before kick-off
Liverpool team news
Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola confirmed that Federico Chiesa misses the match due to a minor back muscle injury, while Harvey Elliott continues working on his match fitness.
Nottingham Forest availability
Nottingham Forest manager Oliver Glasner confirmed that Ibrahim Sangare is unavailable after picking up a minor calf injury during training.
Opening round results
In their opening Premier League fixtures, Liverpool drew 2-2 away against Newcastle United, while Nottingham Forest lost 1-0 at home to Leeds United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.