Chelsea — Brighton and Hove Albion: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.2% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.3% / 30.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.1% / 70.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Chelsea
8th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.08.2026 away Fulham 3:2
- 24.05.2026 away Sunderland 1:2
- 19.05.2026 home Tottenham 2:1
- 09.05.2026 away Liverpool 1:1
- 04.05.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:3
Brighton and Hove Albion
5th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Aston Villa 4:0
- 24.05.2026 home Man United 0:3
- 17.05.2026 away Leeds 0:1
- 09.05.2026 home Wolves 3:0
- 02.05.2026 away Newcastle 1:3
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.04.2026 Brighton and Hove Albion 3:0 Chelsea
- 27.09.2025 Chelsea 1:3 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 14.02.2025 Brighton and Hove Albion 3:0 Chelsea
- 28.09.2024 Chelsea 4:2 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 15.05.2024 Brighton and Hove Albion 1:2 Chelsea
- 03.12.2023 Chelsea 3:2 Brighton and Hove Albion
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Chelsea go into this EPL meeting with a slight edge over Brighton and Hove Albion. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts are more likely to avoid defeat, but the gap between the teams is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest. Brighton and Hove Albion remain a credible threat, particularly in a game expected to offer chances at both ends.
The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are likely to find the net. That makes a narrow Chelsea success or a draw the most plausible overall shape of the match, with scorelines such as 1-1, 2-1 or 2-2 consistent with the available signals. Chelsea have the stronger position in the preview, but Brighton and Hove Albion should have enough attacking presence to keep the result uncertain deep into the match.
What matters before kick-off
Recent head-to-head record
Brighton and Hove Albion have won their last three Premier League matches against Chelsea, scoring three goals in each of those encounters.
Chelsea's recent League Cup result
Chelsea enter the match on the back of a 2-0 victory against Luton Town in the second round of the League Cup.
Brighton's strong start to the season
Brighton head into the clash following back-to-back 4-0 home wins against Aston Villa in the Premier League and Tromso in the Europa Conference League.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.