Bournemouth — Everton: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.5% |
| 12 | 72.8% | |
| X2 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.6% / 24.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Bournemouth
14th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Man City 1:2
- 24.05.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:1
- 19.05.2026 home Man City 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Fulham 1:0
- 03.05.2026 home Crystal Palace 3:0
Everton
5th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:0
- 24.05.2026 away Tottenham 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Sunderland 1:3
- 10.05.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:2
- 04.05.2026 home Man City 3:3
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.02.2026 Everton 1:2 Bournemouth
- 02.12.2025 Bournemouth 0:1 Everton
- 04.01.2025 Bournemouth 1:0 Everton
- 31.08.2024 Everton 2:3 Bournemouth
- 30.03.2024 Bournemouth 2:1 Everton
- 07.10.2023 Everton 3:0 Bournemouth
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bournemouth enter this EPL meeting with a slight edge over Everton, although the assessment does not point to a one-sided contest. The home side are favoured to avoid defeat, with the overall balance suggesting that Bournemouth have the stronger position without being clearly dominant. Everton remain capable of making the match competitive, particularly if they can keep the game level through its early stages.
The scoring outlook is medium, with plausible pathways including a narrow Bournemouth win or a draw. The most likely scorelines indicate a close match, with 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1 all consistent with the wider assessment. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so there is no firm indication that the game will produce goals at both ends. Overall, Bournemouth have the advantage, but Everton are close enough for a controlled, competitive encounter rather than a decisive mismatch.
What matters before kick-off
Ryan Christie returns
Scotland international midfielder Ryan Christie is available for Bournemouth after serving a suspension in the opening matchday.
Bournemouth injury updates
Bournemouth head coach Marco Rose confirmed that Amine Adli, Eli Junior Kroupi, and Veljko Milosavljevic remain sidelined with injuries.
Everton EFL Cup victory
Midweek, Everton secured a convincing 4-0 win against Preston North End in the second round of the EFL Cup.
Marco Rose's home debut
The match against Everton marks Marco Rose's first official home fixture in charge as AFC Bournemouth head coach.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.