Crystal Palace — Manchester City: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 39.8% |
| 12 | 77.7% | |
| X2 | 82.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.2% / 32.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.08.2026
Crystal Palace
16th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Everton 0:2
- 24.05.2026 home Arsenal 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Brentford 2:2
- 13.05.2026 away Man City 0:3
- 10.05.2026 home Everton 2:2
Manchester City
8th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Bournemouth 2:1
- 24.05.2026 home Aston Villa 1:2
- 19.05.2026 away Bournemouth 1:1
- 13.05.2026 home Crystal Palace 3:0
- 09.05.2026 home Brentford 3:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.05.2026 Manchester City 3:0 Crystal Palace
- 14.12.2025 Crystal Palace 0:3 Manchester City
- 12.04.2025 Manchester City 5:2 Crystal Palace
- 07.12.2024 Crystal Palace 2:2 Manchester City
- 06.04.2024 Crystal Palace 2:4 Manchester City
- 16.12.2023 Manchester City 2:2 Crystal Palace
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Crystal Palace face Manchester City in an EPL meeting that points towards an open and attacking contest. The available assessment gives Manchester City a slight edge, although the moderate confidence indicates that the gap between the teams should not be overstated. Crystal Palace are still expected to pose a meaningful threat, particularly in a match where both sides are likely to find opportunities in front of goal.
The scoring outlook is high, with both teams likely to score. That suggests a game shaped less by cautious control and more by the quality of each side’s attacking phases and their ability to respond when possession changes hands. Manchester City’s advantage makes an away win a reasonable lean, but a draw remains a credible possibility if Crystal Palace convert their chances and limit the visitors’ influence. Overall, the BTTS signal supports an entertaining match with several dangerous moments at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Crystal Palace team news
Crystal Palace manager Pierre Sage confirmed that Ismaïla Sarr will miss the match due to a groin injury, while defender Chadi Riad is sidelined after sustaining a knee injury against Everton.
Manchester City player updates
Manchester City manager Enzo Maresca confirmed that new signing Ayyoub Bouaddi is fit and available to make his debut, while Elliot Anderson is cleared to play after suffering cramp against Bournemouth.
Recent league results
In their opening match of the Premier League season, Crystal Palace suffered a 2-0 away loss to Everton, whereas Manchester City secured a 2-1 comeback win over Bournemouth.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.