Leeds United — Brentford: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.6% |
| 12 | 72.2% | |
| X2 | 66.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.1% / 22.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Leeds United
10th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away West Ham 0:3
- 17.05.2026 home Brighton 1:0
- 11.05.2026 away Tottenham 1:1
- 01.05.2026 home Burnley 3:1
Brentford
7th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Tottenham 3:0
- 24.05.2026 away Liverpool 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:2
- 09.05.2026 away Man City 0:3
- 02.05.2026 home West Ham 3:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Leeds United 0:0 Brentford
- 14.12.2025 Brentford 1:1 Leeds United
- 22.01.2023 Leeds United 0:0 Brentford
- 03.09.2022 Brentford 5:2 Leeds United
- 22.05.2022 Brentford 1:2 Leeds United
- 05.12.2021 Leeds United 2:2 Brentford
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Leeds United and Brentford appear evenly matched ahead of this EPL meeting, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. The available assessment points toward a moderate-confidence contest in which the hosts may have a slight positional benefit, while Brentford remain capable of keeping the game balanced. The 1X signal supports a cautious view of Leeds United avoiding defeat, rather than indicating a decisive gap between the teams.
A medium-scoring match is the most plausible broad expectation. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the game could develop into an open exchange or remain tighter than anticipated. The likely scorelines of 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0 reflect that uncertainty: a draw is prominent, but a narrow Leeds United victory is also considered. Brentford have enough standing in the assessment to make this a competitive fixture, and the outcome may depend on which side manages the key moments more effectively.
What matters before kick-off
Leeds United Team News
Manager Daniel Farke confirmed that Wilfried Gnonto and Gabriel Gudmundsson returned to training ahead of the match, though their fitness will be evaluated. Meanwhile, Ilia Gruev is being eased back into full squad activities following his recovery.
Leeds Season Opener Results
Leeds United began their campaign with consecutive victories against Nottingham Forest, winning 1-0 in the Premier League thanks to an Anton Stach free-kick before securing a 2-0 win in the EFL Cup.
Brentford Strong Start to the Campaign
Brentford kicked off their season with a convincing 3-0 Premier League victory over Tottenham Hotspur, followed by a 6-1 win against Birmingham City in the EFL Cup.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.