Kasimpasa Istanbul — Besiktas Istanbul: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
19.3%
Home win
Kasimpasa Istanbul
X
21.4%
Draw
W2
59.2%
Away win
Besiktas Istanbul
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X280.7%
Both teams to score
Yes59.1%
Totals 2.5
Over61.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 40.8% |
| 12 | 78.6% | |
| X2 | 80.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.1% / 16.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Goal distribution model
Kasimpasa Istanbul × Besiktas Istanbul
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.4%
0:1
8.2%
0:2
8.9%
0:3
6.2%
0:4
3.2%
0:5
1.3%
1
1:0
4.3%
1:1
9.8%
1:2
9.9%
1:3
6.8%
1:4
3.6%
1:5
1.5%
2
2:0
2.5%
2:1
5.3%
2:2
5.5%
2:3
3.8%
2:4
2.0%
2:5
0.8%
3
3:0
0.9%
3:1
2.0%
3:2
2.0%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.3%
4:1
0.5%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.9%
1:19.8%
0:28.9%
0:18.2%
1:36.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Kasimpasa Istanbul
6th place · 16 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Eyupspor 1:0
- 18.10.2026 home Samsunspor 4:1
- 09.10.2026 away Galatasaray 1:3
- 18.09.2026 home Konyaspor 0:0
- 13.09.2026 away Genclerbirligi 2:1
Besiktas Istanbul
4th place · 18 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 home Buyuksehyr 2:0
- 19.10.2026 away Trabzonspor 0:2
- 11.10.2026 home Kocaelispor 2:1
- 20.09.2026 away Amedspor 2:3
- 11.09.2026 home Erzurumspor 3:0
This season: Kasimpasa Istanbul at home vs Besiktas Istanbul away
| Metric | Kasimpasa Istanbul · at home | Besiktas Istanbul · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–3–0 | 1–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.47 | 1.43 |
| xG against per match | 1.05 | 1.26 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.50 | 6.75 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Kasimpasa Istanbul wins3
Draws2
Besiktas Istanbul wins1
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored6/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 19.03.2026 Besiktas Istanbul 2:1 Kasimpasa Istanbul
- 26.10.2025 Kasimpasa Istanbul 1:1 Besiktas Istanbul
- 07.04.2025 Kasimpasa Istanbul 1:1 Besiktas Istanbul
- 02.11.2024 Besiktas Istanbul 1:3 Kasimpasa Istanbul
- 26.05.2024 Kasimpasa Istanbul 2:1 Besiktas Istanbul
- 05.01.2024 Besiktas Istanbul 1:3 Kasimpasa Istanbul
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.80 → now 4.10 |
| W2 | was 1.73 → now 1.62 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.