Istanbul Basaksehir — Samsunspor: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
55.3%
Home win
Istanbul Basaksehir
X
23.5%
Draw
W2
21.1%
Away win
Samsunspor
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.9%
Both teams to score
Yes61.2%
Totals 2.5
Over61.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.9% |
| 12 | 76.5% | |
| X2 | 44.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.2% / 38.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.9% / 38.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.7% / 60.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.9% / 78.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
Goal distribution model
Istanbul Basaksehir × Samsunspor
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.1%
0:1
3.8%
0:2
2.9%
0:3
1.1%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
7.2%
1:1
10.8%
1:2
5.8%
1:3
2.3%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.3%
2:1
9.8%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
2.3%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.5%
3:1
6.6%
3:2
3.9%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.8%
4:1
3.3%
4:2
2.0%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.1%
5:1
1.3%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.8%
2:19.8%
2:08.3%
1:07.2%
3:16.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Istanbul Basaksehir
12th place · 11 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 away Besiktas 0:2
- 18.10.2026 home Gaziantep 2:1
- 11.10.2026 away Konyaspor 0:0
- 19.09.2026 home Genclerbirligi 4:0
- 13.09.2026 away Amedspor 0:5
Samsunspor
17th place · 4 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Amedspor 1:2
- 18.10.2026 away Kasimpasa 1:4
- 10.10.2026 home Trabzonspor 0:3
- 20.09.2026 away Erzurumspor 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Corum 1:5
This season: Istanbul Basaksehir at home vs Samsunspor away
| Metric | Istanbul Basaksehir · at home | Samsunspor · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–1 | 1–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.20 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.89 | 0.87 |
| xG against per match | 1.20 | 1.64 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.40 | 3.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Istanbul Basaksehir wins4
Draws1
Samsunspor wins1
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored0/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 09.05.2026 Istanbul Basaksehir 3:0 Samsunspor
- 14.12.2025 Samsunspor 0:2 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 01.02.2025 Istanbul Basaksehir 4:0 Samsunspor
- 18.09.2024 Samsunspor 2:0 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 03.03.2024 Istanbul Basaksehir 1:0 Samsunspor
- 22.10.2023 Samsunspor 0:0 Istanbul Basaksehir
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.93 → now 1.73 |
| W2 | was 3.55 → now 4.20 |
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