Istanbul Basaksehir — Genclerbirligi SK: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 78.2% | |
| X2 | 40.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.9% / 58.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.7% / 76.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 5.25 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
Istanbul Basaksehir enter this Super Lig fixture with a moderate but clear advantage over Genclerbirligi SK. The hosts are assessed as the stronger side, although the available outlook does not suggest an entirely one-sided contest. Genclerbirligi SK are still expected to contribute in attack, which could make the match competitive across the full ninety minutes.
The scoring profile points towards an open game, with both teams likely to find the net and several plausible scorelines involving goals at both ends. At the same time, the Under signal indicates that the match may remain below an especially high total despite the expectation of attacking opportunities. Istanbul Basaksehir should have the greater control and a better chance of converting that superiority into a positive result, but Genclerbirligi SK have enough attacking potential to keep the outcome uncertain. A narrow home win or a draw fits the overall assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Heavy defeat for Istanbul Basaksehir
In their previous Super Lig match on September 13, 2026, Istanbul Basaksehir suffered a 5-0 away loss against Amed SK.
Recent result for Genclerbirligi
Genclerbirligi enter the match following a 2-1 home defeat to Kasimpasa in their league fixture on September 13, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.