Erzurumspor FK — Samsunspor: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.3% |
| 12 | 70.3% | |
| X2 | 63.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.4% / 26.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.5% / 53.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.0% / 75.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 3.20 → now 3.10 |
| W2 | was 2.63 → now 2.75 |
Match preview
Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor meet in the Super Lig in a contest that looks closely balanced on the available indicators. Neither side has a clear overall advantage, so the match may be shaped by small tactical details, especially how each team manages the phases between midfield and the penalty area. With a moderate confidence level in the assessment, the safest reading is that the teams are evenly matched rather than that one club holds a decisive edge.
The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a match with opportunities but not necessarily an open exchange from the first whistle. Both teams scoring remains difficult to call, with the available signal pointing to an essentially even possibility. A draw is therefore a credible scenario, although Erzurumspor FK have a slight protective edge in the broader outcome signal. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 0:0 and 2:1, reflecting a game that could remain tight while still leaving room for a narrow home victory.
What matters before kick-off
Süper Lig round 6 fixture
Erzurumspor FK hosts Samsunspor on 20 September 2026 in round 6 of the Turkish Süper Lig at the Kazım Karabekir Stadium.
Squad availability status
Serkan Ozbalta's Erzurumspor prepared for the match with no major absences, while Thorsten Fink's Samsunspor miss injured forward Fatih Kaya.
Samsunspor recent form
Samsunspor enter the match following three consecutive league defeats, including a 1-5 home loss to Corum FK in their previous fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.