Fenerbahce Istanbul — Eyupspor: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.6% |
| 12 | 88.1% | |
| X2 | 17.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.2% / 55.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.5% / 13.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.3% / 72.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 7.00 → now 6.50 |
| W2 | was 15.00 → now 13.00 |
Match preview
Fenerbahce Istanbul go into this Super Lig meeting as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence edge over Eyupspor. The overall scoring outlook is high, suggesting an open match in which Fenerbahce Istanbul should have the greater attacking influence and more opportunities to control the tempo.
The most likely scorelines point toward a home victory without necessarily indicating a completely one-sided contest, with 2:0, 3:0 and 1:0 among the leading possibilities. Whether both teams score is less certain, described as a balanced possibility rather than a strong signal in either direction. Eyupspor will need to remain compact and limit the hosts' space, while Fenerbahce Istanbul's main task will be to turn their superiority into an early advantage and maintain pressure across the match.
What matters before kick-off
Recent league results
Fenerbahce head into this match following a 0-0 draw against Gaziantep, taking seven points from their opening five Super Lig fixtures. Eyupspor lost 2-0 to Rizespor, having collected just three points from their first five matches.
Eyupspor's attacking record
Eyupspor have struggled for goals in the early Super Lig campaign, finding the net only twice across their opening five league matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.