HNK Rijeka — Tampereen Ilves: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.2% |
| 12 | 83.1% | |
| X2 | 24.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.4% / 58.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.0% / 21.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.2% / 66.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
HNK Rijeka enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie with a clear advantage in the pre-match assessment. The hosts are viewed as clearly stronger than Tampereen Ilves, with a high confidence level behind that reading. That suggests HNK Rijeka should be able to control more of the match, particularly through sustained pressure and a generally more effective attacking approach.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring rather than an open contest, while the assessment also points towards a likely clean sheet for HNK Rijeka. The most plausible scorelines indicate a controlled home victory, with a narrow win also remaining consistent with the overall picture. Tampereen Ilves may need to defend compactly and make the most of limited attacking opportunities, as the balance of the preview gives them little room for error. Overall, the matchup favours HNK Rijeka, although the hosts will still need to turn their advantage into a disciplined performance.
What matters before kick-off
Ilves advance via penalty shootout
Finnish side Tampereen Ilves reached the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round by beating Icelandic club Stjarnan 5-4 on penalties on July 30, 2026, after a 2-2 draw on aggregate.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.