Hibernian FC — Shkendija Tetovo: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.5% |
| 12 | 78.6% | |
| X2 | 33.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Hibernian FC enter this UEFA Conference League qualification tie with a clear overall advantage over Shkendija Tetovo, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment should be treated with some caution. The hosts are expected to control more of the match, particularly through sustained possession and territorial pressure, while Shkendija Tetovo may look to remain compact and threaten when opportunities to counter arise.
The scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring contest rather than an open exchange of chances. Hibernian FC appear more likely to create the better opportunities, but the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. A controlled home performance could lead to a narrow victory, with scorelines such as 2:0 or 1:0 fitting the overall picture. A 1:1 draw is also a credible alternative if Shkendija Tetovo defend effectively and make efficient use of limited attacking opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Hibernian team news against KF Shkendija
Hibernian head coach David Gray named an unchanged starting XI, with Miguel Chaiwa and Martin Boyle fit to start. Callum Wright returned to the substitutes' bench following an injury, while Rocky Bushiri, Nicky Cadden, and Jamie McGrath remained absent.
Hibernian's path to the third qualifying round
Scottish side Hibernian booked their place in the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round by completing a 4-1 second-leg victory over KF Malisheva at Easter Road, overcoming a 2-0 first-leg deficit.
KF Shkendija's qualification journey
North Macedonian club KF Shkendija reached the third qualifying round by edging past Slovenian side NK Bravo 4-3 on aggregate in the second qualifying round, following a 6-0 aggregate win over Gibraltar's Europa FC in the first round.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.