FK Auda Riga — FC Dinamo City: Win probabilities, 04.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.9% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 57.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.6% / 26.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Auda Riga have a slight edge over FC Dinamo City in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie, although the moderate confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a one-sided meeting. The home side’s advantage is reflected in the broader 1X signal, suggesting that FK Auda Riga are better placed to avoid defeat, particularly with home conditions in their favour.
The scoring outlook is medium, so the match could develop through a limited number of decisive moments rather than sustained attacking dominance. Both teams scoring remains finely balanced, making it difficult to identify a clear pattern for how the goals may arrive. A narrow FK Auda Riga win and a draw both fit the overall assessment, while FC Dinamo City remain capable of keeping the tie competitive. The key factor may be whether the hosts can turn their slight territorial or situational advantage into the opening goal without allowing the visitors to respond.
What matters before kick-off
UEFA Conference League qualifying fixture
Latvian club FK Auda host Albanian side FC Dinamo City in the third qualifying round of the UEFA Conference League.
FK Auda's progression to the third qualifying round
FK Auda advanced to the third qualifying round by defeating Romanian side FCSB 7-3 on aggregate, winning 3-2 away and 4-1 at home.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.