FC Noah Yerevan — FC Sion: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.9% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 68.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.8% / 20.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.8% / 67.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Noah Yerevan and FC Sion appear evenly matched ahead of their UEFA Conference League qualification meeting. With moderate confidence in the assessment, the match is difficult to separate on overall balance. Neither side has a clear analytical advantage, so the opening stages may be important as both teams look to establish control without exposing space.
The expected pattern points towards a medium-scoring contest in which both FC Noah Yerevan and FC Sion have a realistic chance of finding the net. The main scoreline scenario is a 1:1 draw, while a narrow FC Sion win or a narrow FC Noah Yerevan victory also fit the assessment. This suggests a competitive game where small moments, particularly in transition and around the penalty areas, could influence the outcome. The available signal leans away from a clear home victory, but the overall picture remains balanced rather than decisive.
What matters before kick-off
Path to the third qualifying round
FC Sion reached the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round by defeating BATE Borisov 5–1 on aggregate, while FC Noah advanced past Moldova's Zimbru Chisinau 3–2 on aggregate.
FC Noah head coach pre-match comments
FC Noah head coach Sandro Perković highlighted FC Sion's high-intensity style of play ahead of the match, emphasizing that his squad understands the challenge and knows what they are capable of.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.