FK Partizan Belgrade — Tobol Kostanay: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.5% |
| 12 | 78.0% | |
| X2 | 33.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.3% / 68.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Partizan Belgrade enter this UEFA Conference League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should be interpreted with some caution. Tobol Kostanay face a demanding assignment away from home, while the overall scoring outlook points towards a medium-scoring match rather than an open contest dominated by chances.
The most plausible scenarios favour a controlled home performance, with 2-0 and 1-0 standing out as the main scorelines. A 1-1 draw is also within the range of realistic outcomes, reflecting the uncertainty around how effectively Tobol Kostanay can resist pressure and whether FK Partizan Belgrade turn their stronger position into a decisive advantage. The expectation that both teams score is balanced, so this is not clearly a match in which either side is certain to find the net.
What matters before kick-off
Conference League 3rd qualifying round fixture
Serbian side Partizan host Kazakh team Tobol Kostanay in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round for the 2026/27 season.
Conference League play-off draw result
According to the Conference League play-off draw, the winner of the tie between Partizan and Tobol will face Spanish side Getafe.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.