Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza — CA Platense: Win probabilities, 23.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.1% |
| 12 | 67.4% | |
| X2 | 65.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.0% / 30.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 0:1
- 12.10.2026 home Newells Old Boys 1:0
- 05.10.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:3
- 19.09.2026 home Dep. Riestra 0:0
- 11.09.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Lanus 0:1
- 11.10.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 1:1
- 05.10.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Newells Old Boys 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 1:2
This season: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza at home vs CA Platense away
| Metric | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza · at home | CA Platense · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–3–3 | 3–6–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.29 | 0.93 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
- 12.04.2026 CA Platense 1:1 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.25 → now 2.75 |
| W2 | was 3.70 → now 2.88 |
Match preview
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza have a slight edge over CA Platense heading into this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting, largely because of their stronger home record. They have won 8 of their 14 home matches this season, scoring 18 goals and conceding 11. However, their recent form is less convincing, with just one win in their last five matches and only one goal scored across that run. Improving their attacking output will be important if they are to turn their home advantage into a positive result.
CA Platense arrive in similarly difficult form, having recorded two draws and three defeats in their last five matches. They have conceded 7 goals while scoring 4 during that period, highlighting some defensive vulnerability without a consistently productive attack. Their away record offers a more balanced picture, with 3 wins and 6 draws from 14 matches, suggesting they can remain competitive even when not in control. The previous meeting between these sides ended in a 1-1 draw, reinforcing the prospect of another closely contested encounter.
Overall, Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza hold a narrow advantage, but the available evidence points towards a low-scoring match rather than an open contest. CA Platense have enough resilience to make the hosts work for their chances, and a draw remains a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Gimnasia Mendoza hosts Platense in matchday 14
The round 14 fixture of the 2026 Liga Profesional Clausura between Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza and CA Platense will take place at the Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie stadium.
Gimnasia Mendoza looks to bounce back following Vélez defeat
The home side, managed by Darío Franco, enters the match looking to recover from a 1-0 defeat against Vélez Sarsfield in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.