Match intelligence

CA Banfield — CA Lanus: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026

League: Primera LPF, Clausura (Argentina) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
CA Banfield1
:
1CA Lanus
Locked signal X2 Probability 75.1% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 24.9% Home win CA Banfield
X 29.4% Draw
W2 45.8% Away win CA Lanus
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X275.1%
Both teams to score
Yes50.1%
Totals 2.5
Under55.4%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X54.2%
1270.6%
X275.1%
Both teams to scoreYes/No50.1% / 49.9%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 90.0% / 10.0%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 71.9% / 28.1%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 44.6% / 55.4%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 23.4% / 76.6%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 10.3% / 89.7%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 3.9% / 96.1%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

CA Banfield × CA Lanus
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 10.0%
0:1 10.9%
0:2 9.0%
0:3 4.3%
0:4 1.6%
0:5 0.5%
1
1:0 7.2%
1:1 14.0%
1:2 9.1%
1:3 4.4%
1:4 1.6%
1:5 0.5%
2
2:0 4.4%
2:1 6.3%
2:2 4.6%
2:3 2.2%
2:4 0.8%
2:5 0.2%
3
3:0 1.5%
3:1 2.1%
3:2 1.5%
3:3 0.7%
3:4 0.3%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 0.4%
4:1 0.5%
4:2 0.4%
4:3 0.2%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.1%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.0%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.0%
0:110.9%
0:010.0%
1:29.1%
0:29.0%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.10.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 0:1
  • 10.10.2026 away Tigre 2:1
  • 06.10.2026 home Rosario Central 1:1
  • 19.09.2026 away Gimnasia L.P. 2:2
  • 14.09.2026 home Barracas Central 1:1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.10.2026 away Platense 1:0
  • 12.10.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 2:0
  • 03.10.2026 away Newells Old Boys 0:0
  • 22.09.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 2:1
  • 14.09.2026 away Dep. Riestra 3:0

This season: CA Banfield at home vs CA Lanus away

Metric CA Banfield · at home CA Lanus · away
Matches1414
W–D–L5–4–55–3–6
Goals scored per match1.211.14
Goals conceded per match1.141.07
Over 2.5 goals36%43%
Both teams scored50%36%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

CA Banfield wins2
Draws2
CA Lanus wins2
Goals per match1.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
  • 13.04.2026 CA Lanus 1:0 CA Banfield
  • 04.11.2025 CA Banfield 2:1 CA Lanus
  • 19.04.2025 CA Lanus 1:1 CA Banfield
  • 30.11.2024 CA Banfield 0:1 CA Lanus
  • 26.02.2024 CA Lanus 1:1 CA Banfield
  • 01.10.2023 CA Banfield 1:0 CA Lanus

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

CA Banfield face a challenging test against CA Lanus, whose recent form gives them a slight edge heading into this Primera LPF, Clausura encounter. CA Banfield have recorded one win, three draws and one defeat across their last five matches, scoring six goals and conceding six. This suggests a relatively balanced side that has struggled to establish consistent momentum. Their home record is similarly mixed, with five wins, four draws and five losses in fourteen matches, highlighting both their ability to compete on familiar ground and their vulnerability to setbacks.

CA Lanus arrive in considerably stronger form, having won four of their last five matches and drawn the other, while scoring eight goals and conceding just once. That defensive solidity is a notable advantage against a CA Banfield side that has been less consistent. However, CA Lanus have also experienced mixed results away from home this season, with five wins, three draws and six defeats in fourteen outings, so the hosts should not be discounted entirely. The previous meeting ended in a 1-0 victory for CA Lanus, although the broader head-to-head record is evenly balanced across six encounters. Overall, CA Lanus hold the clearer edge on current form, but a controlled, relatively low-scoring contest appears plausible, with a draw remaining a credible outcome.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Matchday 14 fixture in Torneo Clausura

CA Banfield host CA Lanús at the Estadio Florencio Sola in an inter-zone matchday 14 clash of the 2026 Argentine Torneo Clausura. Facundo Tello has been appointed as the main referee for the derby.

Schedule

Recent results ahead of the derby

CA Banfield enter the derby following a 1-0 defeat away to Argentinos Juniors, while CA Lanús arrive after a 1-0 victory against Platense.

Match fact

Historical head-to-head record in Clásico del Sur

Across 135 official matches between the two rivals, CA Banfield hold the advantage with 53 victories compared to 42 for CA Lanús, along with 40 draws.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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