Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza — Boca Juniors: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.9% |
| 12 | 70.0% | |
| X2 | 78.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.6% / 11.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.0% / 97.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza face Boca Juniors in the Primera LPF, Clausura, with kickoff scheduled for 6 September 2026 at 20:00 UTC. The assessment gives Boca Juniors a slight edge, while the overall scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring match. That suggests a contest where the visitors may have the stronger position, but not one expected to be decided by a wide margin.
The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:1 and 0:0, reflecting a relatively balanced game with limited separation between the teams. Whether both teams score is difficult to call, so the match could develop either through a narrow Boca Juniors victory or a closely fought draw. The main signal supports Boca Juniors avoiding defeat, while Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza remain capable of keeping the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
2-2 draw in round 8 match
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza and Boca Juniors played out a 2-2 draw in round 8 of the Torneo Clausura. Alan Velasco and Kevin Zenón scored for Boca, while Ignacio Sabatini and an injury-time equalizer from Esteban Fernández secured a point for Gimnasia.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.