Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata — CA Barracas Central: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.2% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.4% / 32.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.6% / 60.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.8% / 97.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away Aldosivi 2:1
- 29.07.2026 home River Plate 1:0
- 24.07.2026 away Racing Club 1:2
- 14.05.2026 away River Plate 0:2
- 11.05.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away Dep. Riestra 1:0
- 29.07.2026 home Aldosivi 1:0
- 25.07.2026 away River Plate 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Banfield 1:2
- 25.04.2026 away Racing Club 1:1
This season: Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata at home vs CA Barracas Central away
| Metric | Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata · at home | CA Barracas Central · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 5–1–3 | 4–4–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.11 | 0.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.02.2026 CA Barracas Central 2:0 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 01.12.2025 CA Barracas Central 0:2 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 13.06.2024 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 2:1 CA Barracas Central
- 09.03.2024 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 2:0 CA Barracas Central
- 24.10.2023 CA Barracas Central 1:2 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 27.02.2023 CA Barracas Central 1:0 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata face CA Barracas Central in the Primera LPF, Clausura, with the available assessment giving the hosts a slight but credible edge. The outlook is cautious rather than open, pointing toward a match where defensive organisation and patience could be more important than sustained attacking pressure.
The expected pattern is low-scoring, with a clean sheet considered likely and limited room for error at both ends. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata appear better placed to control the contest, particularly if they can avoid allowing CA Barracas Central to find space in transition. However, the narrow nature of the assessment leaves the draw as a realistic alternative, especially if the visitors maintain their defensive shape and keep the tempo subdued. Overall, the analysis favours Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata, while indicating that the match may be decided by a single moment rather than a wide margin.
What matters before kick-off
Teams' recent form
Barracas Central enters the match having won all 3 of their opening Torneo Clausura 2026 fixtures, including a 1-0 victory against Deportivo Riestra. Gimnasia y Esgrima holds 6 points from 3 matches after securing a 2-1 away win against Aldosivi in their previous game.
Historical head-to-head fact
Barracas Central's only away top-flight victory against Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata occurred back in 1923 when they won 1-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.