CA Independiente Avellaneda — CA Platense: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.9% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.08.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 0:1
- 31.07.2026 home Newells Old Boys 1:0
- 26.07.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Rosario Central 1:3
- 02.05.2026 away San Lorenzo 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.08.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 0:4
- 30.07.2026 away Instituto 1:2
- 25.07.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 2:2
- 03.05.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 0:2
- 25.04.2026 home San Lorenzo 0:1
This season: CA Independiente Avellaneda at home vs CA Platense away
| Metric | CA Independiente Avellaneda · at home | CA Platense · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–1 | 1–5–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.78 | 0.78 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 44% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.02.2026 CA Platense 0:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 24.10.2025 CA Independiente Avellaneda 3:0 CA Platense
- 17.02.2025 CA Platense 1:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 19.05.2024 CA Platense 0:0 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 05.02.2023 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:2 CA Platense
- 05.07.2022 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:3 CA Platense
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Independiente Avellaneda hold a slight edge over CA Platense in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting, although the low confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the sides. The home advantage gives CA Independiente Avellaneda the more favourable starting position, but the available signals do not suggest a strongly one-sided match.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with a clean sheet more likely than both teams finding the net. That points toward a controlled encounter in which defensive organisation could have a significant influence on the outcome. CA Independiente Avellaneda may be able to turn territorial or possession advantages into a narrow result, while CA Platense remain capable of keeping the match close. A low-margin home win is the clearest reading, but a draw also remains a credible possibility.
What matters before kick-off
Independiente's recent setback
Independiente enter the match following a 1-0 defeat against Vélez Sarsfield, which snapped a two-match winning streak in the league.
Platense's recent result
Platense head into the fixture following a heavy 4-0 defeat against Talleres Córdoba in their previous Liga Profesional match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.