CA Tigre — CA River Plate (ARG): Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.3% |
| 12 | 68.3% | |
| X2 | 72.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 37.8% / 62.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.1% / 81.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.5% / 97.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.08.2026 home Belgrano 0:0
- 02.08.2026 away Racing Club 3:1
- 25.07.2026 away Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 0:1
- 03.05.2026 away Rosario Central 1:1
- 25.04.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home Rosario Central 0:1
- 29.07.2026 away Gimnasia L.P. 0:1
- 25.07.2026 home Barracas Central 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Belgrano 2:3
- 16.05.2026 home Rosario Central 1:0
This season: CA Tigre at home vs CA River Plate (ARG) away
| Metric | CA Tigre · at home | CA River Plate (ARG) · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 3–5–1 | 4–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.22 | 0.89 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.89 | 0.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 11% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 22% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.02.2026 CA River Plate (ARG) 1:4 CA Tigre
- 03.06.2024 CA River Plate (ARG) 3:1 CA Tigre
- 18.02.2023 CA Tigre 0:1 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 28.08.2022 CA Tigre 1:1 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 12.05.2022 CA River Plate (ARG) 1:2 CA Tigre
- 07.04.2019 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:3 CA Tigre
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Tigre face CA River Plate (ARG) in a Primera LPF, Clausura match that projects to be a tight, low-scoring contest. The overall assessment gives CA River Plate (ARG) a slight edge, although the narrow nature of that advantage points to a game where small details may be decisive rather than one dominated by a clear difference between the teams.
The expected rhythm is cautious, with limited space and relatively few clear scoring opportunities. A draw remains a realistic possibility, and the most plausible scorelines reflect that balance, including a goalless draw or a level result with one goal apiece. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so that market should be viewed as finely balanced. The main analytical signal favours CA River Plate (ARG) avoiding defeat, while CA Tigre remain competitive in a match likely to be decided by efficiency rather than sustained attacking volume.
What matters before kick-off
River Plate's difficult run
River Plate enter the match against Tigre seeking to break a five-game losing streak in domestic competition, having failed to score or pick up a point in the opening rounds of the 2026 Clausura.
River Plate squad news
River Plate head coach Eduardo Coudet has Ángel Correa available again alongside potential debutants Francisco Ortega and Tobías Andrada, while Marcos Acuña and Mauro Arambarri remain sidelined through injury.
Minute of silence ahead of kickoff
As part of a league-wide directive for matchday 4 of the Torneo Clausura, a minute of silence and black armbands were designated for the Tigre vs. River Plate match in memory of Lionel Messi's father, Jorge Messi.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.