Defensa y Justicia — Newell's Old Boys: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.3% |
| 12 | 68.1% | |
| X2 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.7% / 58.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.1% / 78.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.3% / 96.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.08.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:3
- 29.07.2026 home Dep. Riestra 2:1
- 24.07.2026 home Aldosivi 1:1
- 04.05.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 1:2
- 24.04.2026 home Boca Juniors 0:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home Boca Juniors 2:2
- 31.07.2026 away Independiente 0:1
- 25.07.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 1:0
- 04.05.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 1:1
- 26.04.2026 home Instituto 1:1
This season: Defensa y Justicia at home vs Newell's Old Boys away
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia · at home | Newell's Old Boys · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 2–6–2 | 2–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 56% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.02.2026 Newell's Old Boys 2:3 Defensa y Justicia
- 17.08.2025 Defensa y Justicia 1:1 Newell's Old Boys
- 12.02.2025 Newell's Old Boys 0:1 Defensa y Justicia
- 25.05.2024 Newell's Old Boys 1:0 Defensa y Justicia
- 16.04.2024 Defensa y Justicia 1:0 Newell's Old Boys
- 28.11.2023 Newell's Old Boys 3:0 Defensa y Justicia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Defensa y Justicia enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a clear but narrow advantage over Newell's Old Boys. The assessment points toward a controlled match in which the hosts are more likely to avoid defeat, while the overall balance still leaves room for a draw. The expected pattern is cautious rather than open, with both sides potentially prioritising defensive structure and limiting unnecessary risks.
Scoring is projected to remain low, making the first goal especially important to the match’s direction. A tight draw is a realistic possibility, while a narrow Defensa y Justicia victory also fits the available signals. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so neither side has a decisive attacking advantage in that area. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 0-0, all reflecting a competitive encounter with limited chances and fine margins.
What matters before kick-off
Defensa y Justicia recent result
In Matchday 3 of the 2026 Torneo Clausura, Defensa y Justicia suffered a 3-0 away defeat against Estudiantes de La Plata.
Newell's Old Boys recent result
Newell's Old Boys played out a 2-2 draw against Boca Juniors in Matchday 3 of the 2026 Torneo Clausura, with Matías Cóccaro and Luca Regiardo scoring for the team.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.