Fenerbahce Istanbul — SK Sturm Graz: Win probabilities, 05.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.4% |
| 12 | 83.3% | |
| X2 | 27.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Fenerbahce Istanbul enter this UEFA Champions League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side according to the available assessment. The high confidence attached to the home outcome points to a substantial advantage in overall match outlook, while the scoring profile suggests an open contest with several opportunities likely to develop. That combination makes the hosts the more convincing team on the available evidence.
SK Sturm Graz still carry enough attacking potential for the match to avoid being viewed as entirely one-sided. The assessment gives both teams scoring a balanced outlook, so the visitors may have opportunities even while facing the stronger opponent. Overall, the central expectation is a high-scoring game in which Fenerbahce Istanbul should control the balance of play, with SK Sturm Graz capable of contributing to the attacking phases.
What matters before kick-off
Fenerbahce's previous round result
Fenerbahce reached the UEFA Champions League third qualifying round by defeating Polish club Gornik Zabrze 2-1 on aggregate.
Sturm Graz's previous round result
SK Sturm Graz advanced to the third qualifying round after defeating Scottish side Hearts 6-0 on aggregate.
Head-to-head history
Fenerbahce and Sturm Graz previously faced each other in 2017/18 Europa League qualifying, with Fenerbahce winning 2-1 in Graz and drawing 1-1 in Istanbul.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.