FC Thun — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
37.0%
Home win
FC Thun
X
28.2%
Draw
W2
34.8%
Away win
Heart of Midlothian FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.8%
Both teams to score
Yes56.1%
Totals 2.5
Over50.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.2% |
| 12 | 71.8% | |
| X2 | 63.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.1% / 43.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.7% / 71.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Goal distribution model
FC Thun × Heart of Midlothian FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.9%
0:1
7.7%
0:2
5.9%
0:3
2.6%
0:4
0.9%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
8.0%
1:1
13.4%
1:2
8.1%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.3%
2:1
8.4%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
2.5%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
2.9%
3:1
3.9%
3:2
2.6%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.0%
4:1
1.3%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.4%
2:18.4%
1:28.1%
1:08.0%
0:07.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
FC Thun
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home HNK Hajduk Split 0:1
- 15.10.2026 away FC Twente Enschede 0:1
- 13.08.2026 away Vikingur Reykjavik 2:3
- 06.08.2026 home Vikingur Reykjavik 3:0
- 28.07.2026 away GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Motherwell 2:0
- 18.10.2026 away Celtic 1:7
- 10.10.2026 home St Mirren 5:0
- 19.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Falkirk 1:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.