AGF Aarhus — SC Braga: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
31.1%
Home win
AGF Aarhus
X
27.2%
Draw
W2
41.6%
Away win
SC Braga
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1272.8%
Both teams to score
Yes55.1%
Totals 2.5
Over50.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.4% |
| 12 | 72.8% | |
| X2 | 68.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.7% / 24.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.4% / 71.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.6% / 94.4% |
Goal distribution model
AGF Aarhus × SC Braga
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.6%
0:1
9.1%
0:2
7.2%
0:3
3.5%
0:4
1.3%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
7.6%
1:1
13.0%
1:2
8.9%
1:3
4.3%
1:4
1.6%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.1%
2:1
7.5%
2:2
5.5%
2:3
2.7%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
2.1%
3:1
3.1%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
0.9%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.0%
0:19.1%
1:28.9%
1:07.6%
0:07.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
AGF Aarhus
Last 4 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home KF Egnatia Rrogozhine 1:1
- 15.10.2026 away KAA Gent 0:1
- 11.08.2026 away Sabah Masazir 0:4
- 29.07.2026 away KKS Lech Poznan 4:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Nacional 0:1
- 19.10.2026 home Gil Vicente 1:2
- 09.10.2026 home Sp Lisbon 1:3
- 20.09.2026 away Santa Clara 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Estoril 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.