FC Midtjylland — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
32.5%
Home win
FC Midtjylland
X
26.8%
Draw
W2
40.7%
Away win
Ajax Amsterdam
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.2%
Both teams to score
Yes58.3%
Totals 2.5
Over54.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.3% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 67.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.6% / 21.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Goal distribution model
FC Midtjylland × Ajax Amsterdam
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.8%
0:1
7.9%
0:2
6.7%
0:3
3.4%
0:4
1.3%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
6.8%
1:1
12.7%
1:2
8.9%
1:3
4.5%
1:4
1.7%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.2%
2:1
7.8%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
3.0%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
2.3%
3:1
3.5%
3:2
2.6%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.8%
4:1
1.2%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.7%
1:28.9%
0:17.9%
2:17.8%
1:06.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
FC Midtjylland
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home St. Truidense VV 0:1
- 15.10.2026 away KF Egnatia Rrogozhine 1:1
- 13.08.2026 home Bohemians Dublin FC 3:2
- 06.08.2026 away Bohemians Dublin FC 2:0
- 30.07.2026 home Besiktas Istanbul 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 2:1
- 18.10.2026 away Groningen 5:2
- 10.10.2026 home Nijmegen 1:1
- 19.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
- 15.09.2026 home Willem II 5:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.