Atalanta BC — FC Kairat Almaty: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
87.0%
Home win
Atalanta BC
X
9.3%
Draw
W2
3.7%
Away win
FC Kairat Almaty
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X96.3%
Both teams to score
No67.0%
Totals 2.5
Over64.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 96.3% |
| 12 | 90.7% | |
| X2 | 13.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Goal distribution model
Atalanta BC × FC Kairat Almaty
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.4%
0:1
1.9%
0:2
0.3%
0:3
0.1%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
10.8%
1:1
4.3%
1:2
1.0%
1:3
0.1%
1:4
0.0%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
15.1%
2:1
6.6%
2:2
1.4%
2:3
0.2%
2:4
0.0%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
14.5%
3:1
6.3%
3:2
1.4%
3:3
0.2%
3:4
0.0%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
10.4%
4:1
4.5%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.1%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
6.0%
5:1
2.6%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:015.1%
3:014.5%
1:010.8%
4:010.4%
2:16.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Frosinone 4:4
- 18.10.2026 away Milan 2:3
- 12.10.2026 home Venezia 3:1
- 20.09.2026 away Juventus 0:2
- 12.09.2026 home Cagliari 1:2
FC Kairat Almaty
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home Panathinaikos Athens 1:5
- 15.10.2026 away Riga FC 1:1
- 11.08.2026 home PFC Levski Sofia 0:1
- 04.08.2026 away PFC Levski Sofia 0:1
- 29.07.2026 home AC Omonia Nicosia 7:5
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.