Estudiantes Rio Cuarto — Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata: Win probabilities, 30.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
21.5%
Home win
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto
X
28.3%
Draw
W2
50.3%
Away win
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X278.5%
Both teams to score
No51.3%
Totals 2.5
Under55.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.7% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 78.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.2% / 9.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.8% / 28.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Goal distribution model
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto × Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
9.8%
0:1
11.8%
0:2
10.1%
0:3
5.1%
0:4
2.0%
0:5
0.6%
1
1:0
6.6%
1:1
13.4%
1:2
9.3%
1:3
4.8%
1:4
1.8%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
3.7%
2:1
5.6%
2:2
4.3%
2:3
2.2%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
1.1%
3:1
1.7%
3:2
1.3%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.3%
4:1
0.4%
4:2
0.3%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.4%
0:111.8%
0:210.1%
0:09.8%
1:29.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 away Barracas Central 1:2
- 18.10.2026 home Aldosivi 2:1
- 11.10.2026 away River Plate 0:1
- 05.10.2026 home Racing Club 1:2
- 20.09.2026 away Belgrano 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 home Sarmiento Junin 2:0
- 16.10.2026 away Huracan 2:1
- 09.10.2026 home Atl. Tucuman 1:1
- 03.10.2026 away Ind. Rivadavia 1:1
- 19.09.2026 home Banfield 2:2
This season: Estudiantes Rio Cuarto at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata away
| Metric | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 17 |
| W–D–L | 3–3–9 | 8–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.53 | 1.06 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 27% | 53% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto wins0
Draws0
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata wins1
Goals per match1.00
Both teams scored0/1
Over 2.5 goals0/1
- 18.04.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 1:0 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 5.75 → now 4.20 |
| W2 | was 1.65 → now 1.90 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.