Velez Sarsfield — CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
48.0%
Home win
Velez Sarsfield
X
30.2%
Draw
W2
21.9%
Away win
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.1%
Both teams to score
No57.0%
Totals 2.5
Under62.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.1% |
| 12 | 69.8% | |
| X2 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 37.3% / 62.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.4% / 97.6% |
Goal distribution model
Velez Sarsfield × CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
12.4%
0:1
8.2%
0:2
3.9%
0:3
1.1%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
14.1%
1:1
13.8%
1:2
5.3%
1:3
1.5%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
10.3%
2:1
8.6%
2:2
3.6%
2:3
1.0%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
4.7%
3:1
3.9%
3:2
1.6%
3:3
0.4%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.6%
4:1
1.3%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:014.1%
1:113.8%
0:012.4%
2:010.3%
2:18.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 away Central Cordoba 5:0
- 18.10.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 1:0
- 12.10.2026 away Lanus 0:2
- 05.10.2026 home Platense 2:2
- 21.09.2026 home Tigre 3:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Newells Old Boys 0:0
- 18.10.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 2:1
- 11.10.2026 home Dep. Riestra 1:0
- 03.10.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 0:3
- 20.09.2026 home Boca Juniors 0:2
This season: Velez Sarsfield at home vs CA San Lorenzo de Almagro away
| Metric | Velez Sarsfield · at home | CA San Lorenzo de Almagro · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 9–5–2 | 3–8–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.19 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 31% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Velez Sarsfield wins1
Draws3
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro wins2
Goals per match0.50
Both teams scored0/6
Over 2.5 goals0/6
- 20.04.2026 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 0:0 Velez Sarsfield
- 07.08.2025 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:0 Velez Sarsfield
- 08.02.2025 Velez Sarsfield 0:0 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 14.09.2024 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 0:1 Velez Sarsfield
- 29.04.2023 Velez Sarsfield 0:0 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 08.10.2022 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:0 Velez Sarsfield
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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