Newell's Old Boys — Union de Santa Fe: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
43.4%
Home win
Newell's Old Boys
X
30.1%
Draw
W2
26.5%
Away win
Union de Santa Fe
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X73.5%
Both teams to score
No52.4%
Totals 2.5
Under58.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.5% |
| 12 | 69.9% | |
| X2 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.1% / 58.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
Goal distribution model
Newell's Old Boys × Union de Santa Fe
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
11.0%
0:1
8.4%
0:2
4.8%
0:3
1.6%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
11.8%
1:1
14.2%
1:2
6.4%
1:3
2.1%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.7%
2:1
8.6%
2:2
4.3%
2:3
1.4%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
3.9%
3:1
3.8%
3:2
1.9%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.3%
4:1
1.3%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.2%
1:011.8%
0:011.0%
2:08.7%
2:18.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away San Lorenzo 0:0
- 19.10.2026 home Central Cordoba 2:1
- 12.10.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 0:1
- 03.10.2026 home Lanus 0:0
- 20.09.2026 away Platense 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 3:1
- 20.10.2026 away Dep. Riestra 1:1
- 10.10.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 0:2
- 03.10.2026 away Boca Juniors 0:3
- 19.09.2026 home Independiente 1:2
This season: Newell's Old Boys at home vs Union de Santa Fe away
| Metric | Newell's Old Boys · at home | Union de Santa Fe · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 17 |
| W–D–L | 5–7–3 | 4–4–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.76 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 65% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 65% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Newell's Old Boys wins2
Draws2
Union de Santa Fe wins2
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 18.04.2026 Union de Santa Fe 2:3 Newell's Old Boys
- 01.11.2025 Newell's Old Boys 0:1 Union de Santa Fe
- 19.04.2025 Union de Santa Fe 1:1 Newell's Old Boys
- 02.11.2024 Union de Santa Fe 2:0 Newell's Old Boys
- 09.02.2024 Union de Santa Fe 1:3 Newell's Old Boys
- 16.09.2023 Newell's Old Boys 1:1 Union de Santa Fe
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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