Defensa y Justicia — CA Independiente Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 02.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
43.8%
Home win
Defensa y Justicia
X
28.5%
Draw
W2
27.6%
Away win
CA Independiente Avellaneda
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X72.4%
Both teams to score
No51.3%
Totals 2.5
Under56.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.4% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.9% / 30.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.1% / 56.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.2% / 77.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.6% / 90.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.6% / 96.4% |
Goal distribution model
Defensa y Justicia × CA Independiente Avellaneda
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
9.7%
0:1
8.7%
0:2
4.8%
0:3
1.7%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
11.7%
1:1
13.5%
1:2
6.6%
1:3
2.3%
1:4
0.6%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.5%
2:1
8.8%
2:2
4.5%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
3.9%
3:1
4.0%
3:2
2.1%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.3%
4:1
1.4%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.5%
1:011.7%
0:09.7%
2:18.8%
0:18.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 2:1
- 16.10.2026 home Instituto 0:1
- 10.10.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 2:0
- 03.10.2026 home San Lorenzo 3:0
- 18.09.2026 away Central Cordoba 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Boca Juniors 0:1
- 18.10.2026 away Racing Club 1:1
- 12.10.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 0:0
- 02.10.2026 home Instituto 1:4
- 19.09.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 2:1
This season: Defensa y Justicia at home vs CA Independiente Avellaneda away
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia · at home | CA Independiente Avellaneda · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 6–6–3 | 6–5–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.20 | 1.19 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.93 | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 63% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Defensa y Justicia wins2
Draws2
CA Independiente Avellaneda wins2
Goals per match1.67
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 18.04.2026 CA Independiente Avellaneda 3:1 Defensa y Justicia
- 04.06.2024 Defensa y Justicia 0:0 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 20.02.2023 CA Independiente Avellaneda 0:2 Defensa y Justicia
- 20.07.2022 Defensa y Justicia 2:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 21.08.2021 CA Independiente Avellaneda 0:0 Defensa y Justicia
- 18.04.2021 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:0 Defensa y Justicia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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