CA Lanus — Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
54.4%
Home win
CA Lanus
X
27.3%
Draw
W2
18.3%
Away win
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X81.7%
Both teams to score
No53.3%
Totals 2.5
Under55.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.7% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.2% / 9.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.4% / 55.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.9% / 96.1% |
Goal distribution model
CA Lanus × Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
9.8%
0:1
6.1%
0:2
3.0%
0:3
0.9%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
12.7%
1:1
12.9%
1:2
4.9%
1:3
1.4%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.2%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
4.0%
2:3
1.1%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
6.0%
3:1
5.0%
3:2
2.1%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
2.4%
4:1
2.0%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.9%
1:012.7%
2:011.2%
0:09.8%
2:19.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Banfield 1:1
- 17.10.2026 away Platense 1:0
- 12.10.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 2:0
- 03.10.2026 away Newells Old Boys 0:0
- 22.09.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 home Platense 1:2
- 18.10.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 0:1
- 12.10.2026 home Newells Old Boys 1:0
- 05.10.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:3
- 19.09.2026 home Dep. Riestra 0:0
This season: CA Lanus at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza away
| Metric | CA Lanus · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 7–5–3 | 3–3–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.13 | 0.73 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.73 | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
CA Lanus wins0
Draws0
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza wins1
Goals per match1.00
Both teams scored0/1
Over 2.5 goals0/1
- 21.04.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1:0 CA Lanus
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.90 → now 1.75 |
| X | was 3.10 → now 3.30 |
| W2 | was 4.33 → now 4.75 |
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