Boca Juniors — CA River Plate (ARG): Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
44.1%
Home win
Boca Juniors
X
29.8%
Draw
W2
26.2%
Away win
CA River Plate (ARG)
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X73.8%
Both teams to score
Yes50.6%
Totals 2.5
Under55.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.8% |
| 12 | 70.2% | |
| X2 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.0% / 28.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.6% / 55.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.3% / 89.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.9% / 96.1% |
Goal distribution model
Boca Juniors × CA River Plate (ARG)
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
10.1%
0:1
7.4%
0:2
4.6%
0:3
1.6%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
10.6%
1:1
14.2%
1:2
6.6%
1:3
2.3%
1:4
0.6%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.6%
2:1
8.9%
2:2
4.7%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.1%
3:1
4.2%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
0.8%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.4%
4:1
1.5%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.2%
1:010.6%
0:010.1%
2:18.9%
2:08.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Independiente 1:0
- 17.10.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 2:1
- 09.10.2026 away Instituto 2:2
- 03.10.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 3:0
- 20.09.2026 away San Lorenzo 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Racing Club 1:0
- 19.10.2026 away Belgrano 3:0
- 14.10.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 1:1
- 11.10.2026 home Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 1:0
- 19.09.2026 home Huracan 1:2
This season: Boca Juniors at home vs CA River Plate (ARG) away
| Metric | Boca Juniors · at home | CA River Plate (ARG) · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–7–0 | 7–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.21 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.47 | 0.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 36% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Boca Juniors wins3
Draws1
CA River Plate (ARG) wins2
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 19.04.2026 CA River Plate (ARG) 0:1 Boca Juniors
- 09.11.2025 Boca Juniors 2:0 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 27.04.2025 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:1 Boca Juniors
- 21.09.2024 Boca Juniors 0:1 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 21.04.2024 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:3 Boca Juniors
- 25.02.2024 CA River Plate (ARG) 1:1 Boca Juniors
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.00 → now 2.15 |
| W2 | was 4.00 → now 3.50 |
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