Estudiantes Rio Cuarto — Atletico Tucuman: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.0% |
| 12 | 66.6% | |
| X2 | 62.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 34.9% / 65.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 83.0% / 17.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 3.6% / 96.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.0% / 99.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto and Atletico Tucuman appear evenly matched ahead of their Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts a slight edge in the overall match outlook, but the difference is limited, so the game may be shaped more by discipline and small moments than by a clear imbalance in quality.
A low-scoring contest is expected, with a clean sheet considered likely. The projected scorelines of 0:0, 1:0, and 1:1 all point toward a cautious match in which neither side is expected to create a sustained advantage. Estudiantes Rio Cuarto may have the more favourable result profile, particularly in a narrow home outcome or a draw, while Atletico Tucuman remain capable of keeping the contest level. The moderate confidence reflects the balanced nature of the fixture rather than a strong prediction in either direction.
What matters before kick-off
Previous Matchday Results
Heading into matchday 5 of the Torneo Clausura, Estudiantes Río Cuarto come off a 2-1 defeat against Independiente Rivadavia, while Atlético Tucumán lost 2-1 to Sarmiento.
Head-to-Head Record
In their earlier meeting during the 2026 Torneo Apertura, Atlético Tucumán defeated Estudiantes Río Cuarto 4-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.