Estudiantes de La Plata — Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.3% |
| 12 | 69.1% | |
| X2 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 36.4% / 63.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.4% / 98.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Estudiantes de La Plata enter this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a slight but well-supported edge over Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata. The assessment points toward a cautious contest in which territorial control and defensive organisation may matter more than sustained attacking pressure. The home side are favoured to avoid defeat, while the gap between the teams remains narrow enough to keep a draw firmly in consideration.
The scoring outlook is restrained, with a clean sheet considered likely. That makes a match decided by a single important moment more plausible than an open exchange of chances. A 1:0 result for Estudiantes de La Plata fits the overall profile, although 0:0 and 1:1 also reflect the expectation of limited attacking output. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata will therefore remain competitive if they can maintain their shape and prevent the hosts from turning their home advantage into clear opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Derby result
Estudiantes de La Plata defeated Gimnasia y Esgrima 4-0 in matchday 5 of the 2026 Torneo Clausura. Goals were scored by Eros Mancuso, Tiago Palacios, Joaquín Tobio Burgos, and Alexis Castro.
Red cards for the visitors
During the derby against Estudiantes, Gimnasia players Alexis Steimbach and Germán Conti both received red cards and were sent off.
Unbeaten home run
Estudiantes holds a 21-match unbeaten home run in the derby against Gimnasia, remaining undefeated at home against their rivals for 23 years.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.