Deportivo Riestra AFBC — Union de Santa Fe: Win probabilities, 20.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
42.1%
Home win
Deportivo Riestra AFBC
X
32.4%
Draw
W2
25.5%
Away win
Union de Santa Fe
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X74.5%
Both teams to score
No56.8%
Totals 2.5
Under64.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.5% |
| 12 | 67.6% | |
| X2 | 57.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 35.4% / 64.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 16.4% / 83.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.1% / 97.9% |
Goal distribution model
Deportivo Riestra AFBC × Union de Santa Fe
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
13.6%
0:1
9.2%
0:2
4.8%
0:3
1.4%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
13.2%
1:1
14.7%
1:2
5.9%
1:3
1.8%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.0%
2:1
8.0%
2:2
3.6%
2:3
1.1%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
3.7%
3:1
3.3%
3:2
1.5%
3:3
0.4%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.1%
4:1
1.0%
4:2
0.4%
4:3
0.1%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.7%
0:013.6%
1:013.2%
0:19.2%
2:09.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.10.2026 home Central Cordoba 1:1
- 19.09.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Lanus 0:3
- 04.09.2026 away Platense 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 away Boca Juniors 0:3
- 19.09.2026 home Independiente 1:2
- 13.09.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 1:2
- 08.09.2026 home Instituto 3:2
- 28.08.2026 home Sarmiento Junin 4:1
This season: Deportivo Riestra AFBC at home vs Union de Santa Fe away
| Metric | Deportivo Riestra AFBC · at home | Union de Santa Fe · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 3–7–4 | 4–3–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.79 | 1.31 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.71 | 1.81 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 14% | 69% |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 63% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Deportivo Riestra AFBC wins0
Draws1
Union de Santa Fe wins1
Goals per match1.00
Both teams scored0/2
Over 2.5 goals0/2
- 03.04.2026 Union de Santa Fe 2:0 Deportivo Riestra AFBC
- 31.08.2024 Union de Santa Fe 0:0 Deportivo Riestra AFBC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.45 → now 2.25 |
| W2 | was 3.25 → now 3.60 |
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