CA Sarmiento Junin — CA Barracas Central: Win probabilities, 19.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
41.9%
Home win
CA Sarmiento Junin
X
31.9%
Draw
W2
26.1%
Away win
CA Barracas Central
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X73.9%
Both teams to score
No55.5%
Totals 2.5
Under63.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.9% |
| 12 | 68.1% | |
| X2 | 58.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.5% / 55.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.5% / 82.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.4% / 97.6% |
Goal distribution model
CA Sarmiento Junin × CA Barracas Central
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
12.9%
0:1
9.1%
0:2
4.9%
0:3
1.5%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
12.7%
1:1
14.7%
1:2
6.1%
1:3
1.9%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.8%
2:1
8.2%
2:2
3.8%
2:3
1.2%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
3.6%
3:1
3.4%
3:2
1.6%
3:3
0.5%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.1%
4:1
1.1%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.7%
0:012.9%
1:012.7%
0:19.1%
2:08.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Racing Club 1:3
- 13.09.2026 home Belgrano 1:1
- 04.09.2026 away Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:0
- 28.08.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 1:4
- 23.08.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 away Atl. Tucuman 3:2
- 21.09.2026 home Ind. Rivadavia 0:1
- 14.09.2026 away Banfield 1:1
- 07.09.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 0:0
- 01.09.2026 away Tigre 0:0
This season: CA Sarmiento Junin at home vs CA Barracas Central away
| Metric | CA Sarmiento Junin · at home | CA Barracas Central · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–2–3 | 5–6–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 43% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
CA Sarmiento Junin wins2
Draws4
CA Barracas Central wins0
Goals per match1.67
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
- 02.04.2026 CA Barracas Central 1:2 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 20.09.2025 CA Barracas Central 0:1 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 09.03.2025 CA Sarmiento Junin 1:1 CA Barracas Central
- 19.05.2024 CA Barracas Central 1:1 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 25.02.2024 CA Sarmiento Junin 0:0 CA Barracas Central
- 02.10.2023 CA Barracas Central 1:1 CA Sarmiento Junin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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