Coritiba FC PR — Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS: Win probabilities, 26.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.5% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.1% / 21.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.10.2026
Coritiba FC PR
12th place · 39 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Atletico-MG 0:1
- 12.10.2026 home Botafogo RJ 1:1
- 09.10.2026 away Fluminense 0:4
- 20.09.2026 away Vasco 0:5
- 12.09.2026 home Athletico-PR 3:3
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
18th place · 31 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Cruzeiro 2:4
- 11.10.2026 home Internacional 1:1
- 07.10.2026 away Remo 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Palmeiras 0:0
- 16.09.2026 away Botafogo RJ 2:3
This season: Coritiba FC PR at home vs Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS away
| Metric | Coritiba FC PR · at home | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 5–5–5 | 0–5–10 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 53% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.04.2026 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 1:0 Coritiba FC PR
- 01.11.2023 Coritiba FC PR 1:2 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 25.06.2023 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 5:1 Coritiba FC PR
- 31.01.2021 Coritiba FC PR 1:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 07.10.2020 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:1 Coritiba FC PR
- 15.10.2017 Coritiba FC PR 0:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Coritiba FC PR enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a slight edge over Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS, although their recent form raises questions about their ability to take control. Coritiba FC PR have recorded no wins in their last five matches, with two draws and three defeats, conceding 14 goals while scoring only four. They sit 12th with 39 points after 31 games, offering a more stable league position than their opponents. Their home record is balanced rather than dominant, with five wins, five draws and five losses in 15 matches.
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS arrive in similarly inconsistent form, having drawn three and lost twice in their last five outings. Their 18th-place position, with 31 points, highlights the pressure surrounding their league campaign. Their away record is a particular concern: they have yet to win in 15 matches on the road, recording five draws and ten defeats while conceding 23 goals. However, the historical matchup favours Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS, who have won five of the last six meetings, including a 1-0 victory in 2026.
The overall balance gives Coritiba FC PR a narrow advantage, primarily because of their stronger league standing and the visitors' poor away results. A moderately scoring contest appears plausible, with a draw remaining a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Suspensions and injuries ahead of the match
Coritiba midfielder Thiago Santos is suspended following his third yellow card, while Lucas Ronier and Lucas Taverna miss out with injuries. Grêmio will be without Walter Kannemann due to suspension following a red card.
Winless streaks for both teams
Both clubs enter this round 32 clash on winless runs spanning six or more matches. Coritiba lost 1-0 to Atlético-MG in their last match, while Grêmio were defeated 4-2 by Cruzeiro.
Head-to-head history
Coritiba and Grêmio have faced each other 78 times across all competitions. Grêmio hold the advantage with 43 victories compared to Coritiba's 19, alongside 16 draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.