Red Bull Bragantino SP — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.0% |
| 12 | 83.9% | |
| X2 | 24.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.6% / 32.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.10.2026
Red Bull Bragantino SP
10th place · 41 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Palmeiras 0:2
- 18.10.2026 away Remo 1:1
- 13.10.2026 home Cruzeiro 4:2
- 07.10.2026 home Mirassol 1:1
- 03.10.2026 away Atletico-MG 0:1
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 21 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Fluminense 2:1
- 17.10.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:1
- 12.10.2026 home Athletico-PR 1:4
- 08.10.2026 away Vitoria 0:4
- 19.09.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:1
This season: Red Bull Bragantino SP at home vs Chapecoense SC away
| Metric | Red Bull Bragantino SP · at home | Chapecoense SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–5 | 1–4–11 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.60 | 0.69 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.13 | 1.81 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 56% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 03.05.2026 Chapecoense SC 1:2 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 11.09.2021 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:2 Chapecoense SC
- 30.05.2021 Chapecoense SC 0:3 Red Bull Bragantino SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Red Bull Bragantino SP look clearly stronger than Chapecoense SC ahead of their Brasileiro Serie A meeting, with the difference between their league positions and away records providing the clearest indication of the balance. Red Bull Bragantino SP sit 10th with 41 points from 32 matches, while Chapecoense SC are bottom of the table in 20th with 21 points from 31 games. The visitors have struggled particularly on the road, winning only once in 16 away matches while conceding 29 goals. By comparison, Red Bull Bragantino SP have won seven of their 15 home fixtures, scoring 24 goals and conceding 17.
Recent form offers some reason for caution, as neither side has been consistently convincing. Red Bull Bragantino SP have recorded one win, two draws and two defeats across their last five matches, scoring six goals and conceding seven. Chapecoense SC have also won once in their last five, but three defeats and 11 goals conceded highlight their defensive difficulties. Their previous meeting in 2026 ended with a 2-1 victory for Red Bull Bragantino SP, reinforcing the hosts' case.
The overall expectation is for Red Bull Bragantino SP to control the contest and create the more promising opportunities. The head-to-head record also points towards attacking potential, with all three previous meetings producing more than two goals. Chapecoense SC may find chances, but their away defensive record makes another difficult evening a realistic concern.
What matters before kick-off
Red Bull Bragantino squad availability
Goalkeeper Tiago Volpi and midfielder Gabriel are suspended for Red Bull Bragantino, while Eric Ramires returns after serving his suspension.
Chapecoense squad availability
Chapecoense midfielders Camilo and Yago Felipe miss the match due to yellow card suspensions, but defender Kauan Faria returns to the squad.
Recent results in Brasileirão
Red Bull Bragantino enter round 33 following a 2-0 defeat against Palmeiras, while Chapecoense secured a 2-1 victory over Fluminense in their previous league match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.