Santos FC SP — SE Palmeiras SP: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.7% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 70.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.1% / 21.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.10.2026
Santos FC SP
8th place · 46 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Bahia 1:1
- 18.10.2026 away Fluminense 2:1
- 11.10.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:2
- 08.10.2026 home Flamengo RJ 2:2
- 03.10.2026 away Sao Paulo 2:1
SE Palmeiras SP
2nd place · 69 pts after 32Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Bragantino 2:0
- 17.10.2026 away Athletico-PR 2:0
- 11.10.2026 home Corinthians 4:1
- 09.10.2026 home Bahia 1:0
- 20.09.2026 away Gremio 0:0
This season: Santos FC SP at home vs SE Palmeiras SP away
| Metric | Santos FC SP · at home | SE Palmeiras SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 6–6–4 | 8–6–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.44 | 1.63 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.31 | 0.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.05.2026 SE Palmeiras SP 1:1 Santos FC SP
- 16.11.2025 Santos FC SP 1:0 SE Palmeiras SP
- 07.11.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 2:0 Santos FC SP
- 08.10.2023 SE Palmeiras SP 1:2 Santos FC SP
- 21.05.2023 Santos FC SP 0:0 SE Palmeiras SP
- 18.09.2022 SE Palmeiras SP 1:0 Santos FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Santos FC SP face a challenging test against SE Palmeiras SP in Brasileiro Serie A, with the visitors arriving in considerably stronger recent form. Santos FC SP have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat across their last five matches, scoring eight goals but conceding seven. Their home record offers a reasonably balanced picture, with six wins and six draws from 16 games, alongside four defeats. Currently eighth with 46 points, they have shown enough consistency to remain competitive, although defensive vulnerability could be a concern against the league leaders.
SE Palmeiras SP have a more convincing recent record, winning four of their last five matches and drawing the other, while scoring nine goals and conceding just one. Their position at the top of the table, with 69 points, reinforces the strength of their campaign. Away from home, eight wins and six draws in 16 matches demonstrate their ability to collect points consistently on the road. These figures give SE Palmeiras SP a slight edge despite the expectation of a competitive contest.
The head-to-head record is evenly balanced, with two wins apiece and two draws across the last six meetings. Their most recent encounter ended 1-1, suggesting Santos FC SP can make this matchup difficult. A medium-scoring game appears plausible, with a draw or narrow victory for either side remaining realistic.
What matters before kick-off
Neymar suspended for the derby
Santos forward Neymar will miss the match against Palmeiras as he serves a suspension following his red card against Bahia.
Palmeiras face attacking absences
Palmeiras will be without forward Paulinho and winger Ramón Sosa due to injury issues.
Palmeiras unbeaten against Santos in 2026
Palmeiras remain undefeated against Santos across four meetings in 2026, recording two victories and two draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.