CA Sarmiento Junin — CA Huracan: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.9% |
| 12 | 66.0% | |
| X2 | 70.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 33.2% / 66.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 81.9% / 18.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 24.7% / 75.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 9.6% / 90.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 0.8% / 99.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA Sarmiento Junin and CA Huracan appear evenly matched ahead of their Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, so the balance between the sides should be treated with some caution rather than as a decisive advantage for either team. A draw is a credible outcome, while CA Huracan hold a slight edge in the broader result range.
The match is expected to be low-scoring, with limited space for either attack to establish clear control. A clean sheet is likely, which makes compact defensive organisation and patience in possession especially important. The most plausible scorelines are 0:0, 0:1 and 1:0, all of which reflect a contest where one moment could determine the outcome or where neither side finds a breakthrough. Overall, the forecast favours a restrained game, with CA Huracan avoiding defeat more likely than a clear victory for either team.
What matters before kick-off
Sarmiento's recent form
Sarmiento lost their opening two matches of the 2026 Clausura tournament but bounced back with two consecutive victories, including a 2-1 away win against Atlético Tucumán.
Huracán's previous match
Huracán enters the fixture following a 2-0 derby victory away against San Lorenzo, in which Ecuadorian forward Jordy Caicedo scored both goals.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.