CA San Lorenzo de Almagro — CA Huracan: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.7% |
| 12 | 65.5% | |
| X2 | 66.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 80.8% / 19.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 22.9% / 77.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 2.6% / 97.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 0.7% / 99.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro and CA Huracan appear evenly matched ahead of their Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, pointing instead to a balanced contest in which small details and defensive discipline could have a significant influence. With only moderate confidence in the overall outlook, the match is difficult to separate on comparative strength alone.
The expected pattern is low-scoring, with a clean sheet considered likely. That suggests a cautious game, where both teams may prioritise their defensive shape and avoid taking excessive risks early on. Chances could be limited, making set pieces, transitions and individual moments particularly important. A draw is a credible scenario, although a narrow victory for either CA San Lorenzo de Almagro or CA Huracan would also fit the balanced profile of the fixture.
What matters before kick-off
Squad availability issues
Huracán enter the derby missing César Ibáñez, Facundo Waller, and Emmanuel Ojeda. San Lorenzo are forced to deploy 19-year-old Nicolás Blanco on the flank due to injuries to Ezequiel Herrera and Nahuel Arias.
Clásico Porteño head-to-head record
San Lorenzo hold a broad historical advantage in the Clásico Porteño overall, but have won only 1 of their last 16 derby meetings against Huracán.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.